How will German carmakers be affected by US port strikes?

“Yes! We have no bananas” isn’t just the title of a funny old song. In the US, it could soon become a reality as around 45,000 port workers along the eastern and Gulf coasts go on strike.
Important produce could be stranded and spoil at ports, or on ships at sea. Before the strike began, New York Governor Kathy Hochul asked consumers not to stockpile food.
Nonperishable goods like vehicles from Germany will be able to last longer in the salty air, but they bring their own challenges.
No matter what type of goods, strikes at ports could be yet another shock to global trade and supply chains after shipping was dealt blows by attacks in the Red Sea and low water levels in the Panama Canal. These two factors have already driven up international freight prices and are a reminder of just how delicate supply chains can be.
For German carmakers, the strike couldn’t come at a worse time. Sales — especially of electric vehicles — are sluggish, and the biggest producer, Volkswagen, is going through major turmoil at home. German auto exports to the key market of China have been falling.
At the same time, exports to the US have been growing. Last year, Germany exported around 400,000 vehicles to the US, which accounts for around 10% of total German auto production, said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at research firm Capital Economics.
Still, the strike “has the potential to be a significant additional problem for German manufacturers given that the US is Germany’s largest export market. And auto producers would be among the worst affected,” Kenningham told DW.
“However, this will be a problem only if the strike itself continues for a long time, which we think unlikely given that President Biden has the powers to bring it to an end and will want to do so near to an election.”
John McElroy, a Detroit-based auto industry expert, agrees German manufacturers will be OK — if the strike is short.
“German automakers and suppliers will not be impacted by the port strike if it lasts a week or two because they have likely stockpiled vehicles and parts in anticipation of this happening,” McElroy told DW.
On the other hand, German manufacturers build a lot of vehicles inside America. The US is a major production site for highly profitable SUVs made by Mercedes and BMW in places like South Carolina and Alabama.
“If those vehicles are not shipped to other countries, inventory will start to pile up, and if they run out of room to park those vehicles, they will have to cut production at their US plants,” said McElroy.
For now, American car buyers will not be affected much as dealers have enough inventory to wait for a strike settlement. Some customers may be limited in the choice of vehicles they can buy, said McElroy, but a noticeable impact on sales and earnings will only be felt if the strike drags on longer.
US and German automakers have abundant inventories in the US, agrees Wendy Qian from Fitch Ratings. They have at least 70 days of inventory and “are focusing on inventory management, which should provide a buffer for potential disruptions in production,” she told DW.
Just as important, German carmakers producing in the US have diversified their supplier base and often have multiple suppliers for even the most basic components.
“A lot of onshoring and nearshoring, for example to Mexico, of the supply chain has taken place after the pandemic and also against the backdrop of lingering geopolitical tensions,” said Qian.
Dockworkers, otherwise known as longshoremen, on the eastern and Gulf coasts put down their tools, walked off the job and joined picket lines after their contract expired on September 30 and negotiations with port operators seemed to go nowhere.
Longshoremen are the men and women who load and unload containers, cars and heavy machinery from cargo ships each day.
The workers are asking for an incremental pay raise totaling 77% over six years to keep up with inflation. They are also demanding restrictions on automation, which they suspect will lead to job losses.
The strike will affect 36 ports from Maine to Texas, the biggest of which are at Boston, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, Wilmington, Baltimore, Norfolk, Charleston, Savannah, Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami, New Orleans, Mobile and Houston.
Ports and dockworkers on the West Coast are covered by another union and are not on strike. But rerouting ships there takes time and is expensive, especially if the goods are needed on the other side of the country.
President Joe Biden has the authority to order striking workers back to the ports for an 80-day cooling-off period. But when asked, the president said he would not intervene.
But with US elections coming in just over a month, he may change his mind, despite the importance of union support to the Democrats.  
Edited by: Ashutosh Pandey